Projected 2021 NFL draft order: Who has the No. 1 decide?

Which staff will decide No. 1 general within the 2021 NFL draft? Via 12 weeks, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) tasks the winless New York Jets with one of the best likelihood to get the highest choice. The Jets took over the No. 1 spot after Week 5. The 1-10 Jacksonville Jaguars are additionally within the operating for the decide.

Every week in the course of the season, FPI tasks the draft order by simulating the rest of the season 10,000 instances. Sport chances are primarily based largely on the mannequin’s scores for particular person groups along with recreation places. The order relies on the report the mannequin believes the groups could have after 16 video games, in addition to every staff’s common draft place within the simulations.

Try the complete 1-32 projection for the 2021 NFL draft (up to date on Dec. 3):

Common draft place: 1.3
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 68.7%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 99.9%


Common draft place: 1.9
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 30.8%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 99.1%


Common draft place: 4.8
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 0.2%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 71.4%


Common draft place: 5.5
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 0.2%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 67.2%


Common draft place: 6.5
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 0.2%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 42.6%


Common draft place: 7.7
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 23.8%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 85%


Common draft place: 9.5
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 8.8%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 62.9%


Common draft place: 9.5
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 11.6%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 61.6%


Common draft place: 9.7
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 11.6%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 56.6%


Common draft place: 11.5
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 22.2%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 62.8%


Common draft place: 11.6
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 23.4%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 62.8%


Common draft place: 12.1
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 15.3%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 60.4%


Common draft place: 12.6
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 2.3%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 24.6%


Common draft place: 14.1
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 0.4%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 16.9%


Common draft place: 14.7
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 0.2%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 10.5%


Common draft place: 15.5
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 8.5%


Common draft place: 17.3
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 3.3%


Common draft place: 18.8
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.4%


Common draft place: 19.0
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 2%


Common draft place: 19.8
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.5%


Common draft place: 19.8
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%


Common draft place: 21.6
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%


Common draft place: 23.2
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%


Common draft place: 23.9
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%


Common draft place: 24.5
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%


Common draft place: 25.2
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%


Common draft place: 25.6
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%


Common draft place: 26.2
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%


Common draft place: 27.1
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%


Common draft place: 29.3
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%


Common draft place: 28.6
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%


Common draft place: 29.7
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%

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