MLB Energy Rankings, way-too-early version: How Dodgers, Rays and all 30 groups stack up for 2021

We will solely hope 2021 will likely be a extra regular season, with 162 video games and followers within the stands and sizzling canine to eat and overpriced beer to drink. We do not know what the state of issues will likely be come April 1, when the 2021 season is scheduled to start, however we are able to speculate on the state of the 30 franchises.

Sure, we’re again with our annual Approach-Too-Early Energy Rankings. There are a number of apparent groups on the prime, a handful on the backside and an entire bunch within the center. Throw within the issue of analyzing a 60-game season and the uncertainty of how the offseason will play out because of the monetary losses of this season, and these are probably the most troublesome rankings now we have needed to do. However we fearlessly transfer ahead.

(Title odds for 2021 from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill)

2020 document: 43-17
Gained World Sequence
2021 title odds: 4-1

They’re reigning champs. They’ve gained eight straight division titles. They’ve Mookie Betts signed for the long run. They’ve younger starters comparable to Walker Buehler, Dustin May, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin to maintain the rotation robust for years to return. They’ve gamers able to higher seasons (Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux). They’ve a great farm system. They’ve monetary flexibility, with solely Betts signed previous 2022 and all these younger gamers to assist them hold the payroll in test. Justin Turner is a free agent, however he can be a pleasant DH choice if the NL makes that everlasting. We all know they are going to be good. However we all know it is actually all about October.


2020 document: 35-25
Misplaced NLCS to Dodgers
2021 title odds: 12-1

The offense provides them a excessive flooring:Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, even Travis d’Arnaud and Adam Duvall raked in 2020. Marcell Ozuna is a free agent and it might be good to deliver him again, however rookie heart fielder Cristian Pache is prepared and he seems like he’ll be priceless on either side of the ball. The rotation will see the return of Mike Soroka from his Achilles damage and a full season of Ian Anderson to again up Max Fried. Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson have potential, and Atlanta will in all probability usher in a veteran starter on a one-year deal the way in which they did with Dallas Keuchel in 2019 and tried to do with Cole Hamels in 2020. The Braves will likely be favored to win a fourth straight division title even when they do not do something this offseason.


2020 document: 37-23
Misplaced Division Sequence to Dodgers
2021 title odds: 17-2

Certain, an argument will be made to place the Padres forward of the Braves, however I feel now we have to first be certain Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger are utterly wholesome in spring coaching. San Diego brings again basically each important participant after working out the youngest lineup within the NL, with Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham wanting like basis additions alongside Fernando Tatis Jr. (All had been acquired in trades; good job, A.J. Preller!) We’ll see if Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers can match their 2020 price of manufacturing, but when Luis Patino and MacKenzie Gore change into impression starters, the Padres are poised to make a multiyear run in difficult the Dodgers for NL West supremacy.


2020 document: 40-20
Misplaced World Sequence to Dodgers
2021 title odds: 10-1

The Rays gained their first division title since 2010 and did it in fairly exceptional vogue, with 12 completely different relievers recording a save and the pitching employees overcoming a slew of accidents alongside the way in which. They had been capable of pull that off due to the depth of their employees, however having expanded rosters over the 60-game season made it attainable to rely so closely on the bullpen. After all, you’ll be able to argue that pitching depth will likely be much more priceless over 162 video games. The offense is not elite, though we won’t wait to see what Randy Arozarena will do over a full season or if tremendous rookie Wander Franco is able to make an impression sooner or later in 2021.


2020 document: 35-25
Misplaced Wild Card Sequence to A’s
2021 title odds: 12-1

Very similar to the Braves, the offensive firepower of the White Sox ought to give them a excessive flooring. Even when you see some regression coming from Jose Abreu or Tim Anderson, Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada ought to enhance and a full season of Nick Madrigal will assist. Michael Kopech, who opted out of 2020, will hopefully be again, however he hasn’t pitched in two years, so discovering one other veteran arm to go together with ace Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel will likely be key. Nearer Alex Colome is a free agent, however the White Sox have a number of energy arms of their group, together with 2020 first-round decide Garrett Crochet, who might be a dominant reliever immediately. Supervisor Rick Renteria and longtime pitching coach Don Cooper received the boot, with A.J. Hinch a attainable alternative for Renteria. That will be an improve.


2020 document: 33-27
Misplaced Division Sequence to Rays
2021 title odds: 6-1

You can also make an argument to place them a few spots greater, however not successful the AL East in 2020 factors to some flaws. They merely cannot depend on Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton being wholesome for a complete season, plus DJ LeMahieu and Masahiro Tanaka are free brokers, two essential gamers to re-sign or exchange. After all, we all know the Yankees will do one thing large, maybe signing J.T. Realmuto and transferring on from Gary Sanchez or buying and selling for Francisco Lindor and shifting Gleyber Torres to second. Getting Luis Severino again from Tommy John surgical procedure will likely be a giant increase as properly.


2020 document: 36-24
Misplaced Wild Card Sequence to Astros
2021 title odds: 14-1

The Twins did not do it fairly like they did in 2019, once they bashed a document 307 residence runs (though their 162-game tempo for 2020 was nonetheless 259), as their staff batting common dropped almost 30 factors, and so they fell from second within the AL in runs to tenth. Nonetheless, they’ve established a basis of success with three playoff appearances in 4 seasons. The large situation is that they have a whole lot of free brokers to interchange or re-sign, beginning with 40-year-old Nelson Cruz, but additionally Jake Odorizzi, Marwin Gonzalez, Rich Hill, Tyler Clippard, Trevor May and Homer Bailey. These gamers had been minor contributors, however with Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Taylor Rogers getting dearer in arbitration, the Twins might not be capable of fill out the roster with minor free brokers the way in which they’ve accomplished of late. They want a wholesome Josh Donaldson, particularly if Cruz leaves, and so they should discard the emotional baggage of 18 consecutive playoff losses to get revved up for 162 video games simply to get again to October once more.


2020 document: 36-24
Misplaced Division Sequence to Houston
2021 title odds: 14-1

The A’s weren’t as spectacular as they had been in 2019 — Matt Olson morphed into an excessive “three true outcomes” slugger, Matt Chapman‘s OBP dipped to .276 and Marcus Semien declined from his third-place MVP efficiency. They nonetheless coasted to the AL West title although, and the division initiatives as being fairly smooth, not less than proper now. Semien and nearer Liam Hendriks are free brokers as are a number of different key position gamers, so this rating is just not introduced with a excessive diploma of confidence. The A’s at all times appear to maximise their expertise, and I do assume the rotation will likely be a lot better, making up for among the seemingly bullpen regression.


2020 document: 26-34
Tied for fourth in NL East
2021 title odds: 30-1

I really feel like we want one other Nationwide League staff right here, however let’s be sincere: There’s a broad hole between the NL’s prime three groups and the block of mediocre groups within the center. Let’s roll the cube on the Mets with new proprietor Steve Cohen to the rescue (as soon as he will get formally permitted). Let’s simply say Mets followers are pumped about Cohen’s WAW (wins above Wilpon). There have already been reviews about all the cash he’ll sink into the franchise, not simply on gamers however issues like constructing out a extra sturdy analytics employees. Apart from any splashy strikes Cohen might make — buying and selling for Nolan Arenado or Francisco Lindor? Signing J.T. Realmuto or Trevor Bauer? — there’s a robust base of expertise right here. They ranked third within the majors in wOBA (behind the Braves and Dodgers) and fifth within the majors in pitcher strikeout price. They need to be higher — a well-recognized chorus for Mets followers, sadly.


2020 document: 34-26
Misplaced Wild Card Sequence to Marlins
2021 title odds: 25-1

Everybody was down on the Cubs, particularly after that unhappy two-and-out to the Marlins, however we do must level out Chicago nonetheless gained the NL Central regardless of Javier Baez (59 OPS+), Kris Bryant (73) and Kyle Schwarber (88) all producing properly beneath a mean main league hitter and Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras performing beneath their profession norms. That continues a downward development for this once-great offensive core, from second within the NL in runs in 2016 and 2017 to fourth in 2018, fifth in 2019 and tenth in 2020. Baez, Bryant, Schwarber and Rizzo are all free brokers after 2021, however frankly, the commerce worth for Bryant and Schwarber — and even Baez, to a lesser extent — has cratered. Theo Epstein additionally hinted that 2021 will likely be his final season with the Cubs. Does this group get one final probability? In a weak division, with some bounce-back potential, the Cubs might be higher than everybody believes. Or possibly the entrance workplace will simply tear all of it down.


2020 document: 29-31
Misplaced ALCS to Rays
2021 title odds: 20-1

It guarantees to be a busy winter for the Astros. George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick are all free brokers, whereas Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and Zack Greinke are set to be free brokers after 2021, as are Justin Verlander and Roberto Osuna, each of whom will seemingly miss the season following Tommy John surgical procedure. They will want extra from Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman (and remember about Yordan Alvarez) however they may have a robust rotation in the event that they hold McCullers and Greinke to go together with Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. The outfield free-agent market is skinny, so if Springer and Brantley signal elsewhere, the Astros might must scramble to search out assist for Kyle Tucker.


2020 document: 35-25
Misplaced Wild Card Sequence to Yankees
2021 title odds: 20-1

We begin with one of many largest questions of the whole offseason: Will Cleveland commerce Francisco Lindor? It appears bizarre to say this, however there is not an apparent match, as many of the prime groups are set at shortstop. Will probably be attention-grabbing to see if a staff tries to tug the Mookie Betts maneuver: commerce for Lindor, then signal him to a giant extension earlier than he hits free company after the 2021 season. Apart from the Lindor situation, it may be the same Cleveland staff as we have seen the previous two years: sufficient beginning pitching to be a playoff staff, however an offense that will forestall them from getting there. Please, discover some competent outfielders. Cleveland’s outfielders hit .196/.270/.304.


2020 document: 30-28
Misplaced Wild Card Sequence to Padres
2021 title odds: 30-1

In a single sense, it is more durable to judge what the Cardinals did in 2020 than another staff, with them having to play 11 doubleheaders after the staff’s COVID-19 outbreak early within the season. Alternatively, they had been precisely what we thought they might be: below-average offense with no energy, good protection, good bullpen, respectable beginning pitching. I simply do not how they’ll get higher, particularly on condition that a few of their pitching peripheral numbers do not fairly match the ERA figures. Look, as at all times, you’ll be able to by no means low cost the Cardinals. They have not had a shedding season since 2007. The division is broad open. Jack Flaherty will likely be higher. Dylan Carlson may give them an impression outfielder. The bullpen initiatives as a giant power.


2020 document: 26-34
Tied for fourth in NL East
2021 title odds: 30-1

No staff had much less incentive in 2020 than the Nationals, and as soon as Stephen Strasburg went down, it type of felt like the whole staff went down with him. Juan Soto performed at an MVP degree for 47 video games, main the NL in batting common and the majors in OBP and slugging. It wasn’t a full season so I am not saying it compares, however his 212 OPS+ was one of the best since Barry Bonds in 2004.

There are considerations within the beginning rotation, nonetheless, past Strasburg’s nerve situation. Anibal Sanchez fell aside, Patrick Corbin received knocked round (85 hits in 65⅔ innings) and even Max Scherzer had his highest ERA since 2012.The true downside might have been the protection: The Nationals ranked final within the majors with minus-43 defensive runs saved. As at all times, depth is a matter and so they want kids Carter Kieboom (no residence runs in 99 at-bats) and Victor Robles (.608 OPS) to contribute on the plate. If Strasburg is wholesome, do not ignore the 2019 champs.


2020 document: 32-28
Misplaced Wild Card Sequence to Rays
2021 title odds: 50-1

The Blue Jays face a really attention-grabbing offseason after making the playoffs as a wild card and rating third within the AL in runs. The offense doubtlessly seems even higher when you’re shopping for the breakouts of Teoscar Hernandez and Rowdy Tellez. Value noting: The Jays hit a lot better at their non permanent residence in Buffalo, so now we have to watch out about overrating the offense. Hyun-Jin Ryu was terrific (not less than till his playoff begin), however the remainder of the rotation was so problematic that the Jays acquired Taijuan Walker, Robbie Ray and Ross Stripling for the stretch run. Walker and Ray are free brokers, however Nate Pearson will assist, and the Jays ought to have some cash to spend in free company.


2020 document: 28-32
Third in NL East
2021 title odds: 40-1

It is arduous to see the Phillies a lot better than the .500 staff they have been the previous three seasons, which led to common supervisor Matt Klentak being reassigned inside the group. They’d two nice starters in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler and completed fourth within the NL in runs, however the bullpen (6.92 ERA, worst of all time) undermined all of the positives. The Phillies allowed a .345 common on balls in play, and possibly that might drop over a full season, however it stands as the best ever. This has been a multiyear downside. They had been center of the pack in BABIP allowed in 2019, however fifth-worst in 2018 and sixth-worst in 2017. They have been unable to repair the protection. Anyway, J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius are free brokers. The payroll would have been greater than $200 million given a full season in 2020, so that you marvel if there’s room to re-sign Realmuto and repair the bullpen and exchange/re-sign Gregorius and possibly add one other starter.


2020 document: 26-34
Fourth in AL West
2021 title odds: 40-1

Billy Eppler is out as common supervisor after a five-year run that included no successful seasons. Sure, he inherited the dangerous Albert Pujols contract, however he additionally inherited Mike Trout and was by no means capable of construct a profitable staff round him, regardless of additions like Andrelton Simmons, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon. Simmons is a free agent, Pujols is lastly all the way down to his last season and Jared Walsh (.971 OPS, 9 residence runs in 99 at-bats, a low 13.9% strikeout price) has to play. The instant considerations are attempting to show Jo Adell into a serious league hitter (.161, 55 strikeouts, seven walks in 132 PAs), work out what occurred to Ohtani (.190) and Justin Upton (.204) and — as at all times — deal with the pitching. Seems like the identical story because the previous 5 years.


2020 document: 29-31
Misplaced Wild Card Sequence to Dodgers
2021 title odds: 50-1

This can be a troublesome staff to learn. The Brewers did not hit in any respect in 2020 (I feel the NL should have saved its balls in Lake Michigan, as a result of no one may hit). Two-time batting champ and 2018 MVP Christian Yelich hit simply .205, and I do know it was simply 58 video games, however his strikeout price went from 20.3% to 30.8%. One thing does not add up there.

They do have two nice one-two combos in Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes within the rotation and Devin Williams and Josh Hader within the bullpen. Does Williams’ gorgeous breakout (53 Ok’s in 27 innings) make Hader commerce bait? Burnes definitely regarded like the actual cope with his new cutter, however he’ll must show he can do it over 30 begins as an alternative of 10. David Stearns is without doubt one of the extra artistic GMs round, though he’d in all probability like a do-over on the Trent Grisham/Zach Davies for Luis Urias/Eric Lauer deal.


2020 document: 24-36
Fifth in AL East
2021 title odds: 60-1

This was the toughest staff to mission. The pitching was so terrible — 5.85 runs per recreation, probably the most for the franchise since 1932 — that it is simple to imagine it will likely be dangerous once more in 2021. It was additionally dangerous in 2019 (5.11 runs per recreation), so now we have a two-year monitor document. Possibly they get Chris Sale again at midseason and Eduardo Rodriguez returns from his COVID-related coronary heart situation. There’s a good offensive core with Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo and Christian Vazquez (and J.D. Martinez if he bounces again). I am undecided what Bobby Dalbec will likely be. I assume his upside is Joey Gallo, if that is a great factor. Extra importantly, is Chaim Bloom enjoying the lengthy recreation or will there be stress to get the Pink Sox instantly again into contender standing?


2020 document: 31-29
Misplaced Wild Card Sequence to Braves
2021 title odds: 25-1

The Reds sneaked into the playoffs as a wild card with a late surge, however the staff embarrassingly exited with two shutouts to the Braves, together with a 13-inning defeat. The Reds have morphed into probably the most excessive instance of a “three true outcomes” offense we have seen on this launch-angle period. They ranked fourth within the NL in residence runs and first in walks, however hit a pathetic .212. Your complete package deal added as much as rating simply thirteenth within the NL in runs, then you definately dig deeper and notice they hit 55 residence runs at residence and 35 on the street, a lot of their energy was merely a results of their residence park. It is a dangerous offense, and I am undecided it improves a lot in 2021. Trevor Bauer is a certain wager to signal elsewhere as a free agent, and we nonetheless do not know if Nick Senzel is the answer in heart subject or an injury-prone position participant.


2020 document: 31-29
Misplaced Division Sequence to Braves
2021 title odds: 60-1

It was a enjoyable trip to their first postseason journey since 2003, however when you get previous the beginning trio of Sixto Sanchez, Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez, holes stay. The pitching employees was subsequent to final within the majors in strikeout price, and the staff’s prime 5 relievers had been all 30-something guys you’ll be able to’t essentially depend on for 2021. There aren’t any offensive stars because the lineup relied on stopgap veterans, whereas the younger hitters nonetheless have hassle controlling the strike zone (and the younger hitters aren’t actually all that younger). The minus-41 run differential is somewhat deceptive because the Marlins had to make use of extra gamers than another staff because of the COVID-19 outbreak, however I am undecided I see one other .500 season until among the younger hitters out of the blue become strong regulars.


2020 document: 29-31
Third in NL West
2021 title odds: 80-1

Name me skeptical. They went from the second-worst offense within the NL to a top-five offense — with out making any important additions. Brandon Belt with a 1.000 OPS? Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson over .900? Donovan Solano chasing a batting title? I odor a whole lot of regression approaching, and the Giants haven’t got the rotation to again that up. In addition they had the oldest lineup within the league: Mauricio Dubon is the one returning common who will not be 30 or older in 2021. Possibly catcher Joey Bart makes an impression, however a 41 to three strikeout-to-walk price suggests he is not prepared for prime time. A number of of their large contracts come off the books after 2021 when you think about buyouts, so search for the Giants to attend till that large 2021-22 free-agent class to begin flipping over the roster.


2020 document: 27-33
Third in AL West
2021 title odds: 100-1

There have been some good positives in 2020: Kyle Lewis might win Rookie of the Yr, Justus Sheffield was a lot improved, Marco Gonzales solidified himself as some of the underrated starters within the majors, Dylan Moore become among the best utility gamers as an influence/pace combo. However there’s nonetheless zero star energy right here, not less than till Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez arrive as potential All-Star outfielders, Kelenic in 2021 and Rodriguez in all probability in 2022. Jerry Dipoto should reconstruct a bullpen that was one of many worst within the league (5.92 ERA). The Mariners are on the rise and produce other potential impression prospects, together with pitchers Logan Gilbert and Emerson Hancock, however search for them to carry the course in 2021 and push ahead in 2022.


2020 document: 26-34
Fourth in AL Central
2021 title odds: 150-1

The Royals have some attention-grabbing younger pitchers in Brad Keller, Brady Singer and Kris Bubic, with Josh Staumont as a possible nearer, however there are nonetheless big gaps throughout the roster, particularly on the offensive aspect of issues. They want to determine heart subject, second base and left subject, and even Adalberto Mondesi Jr. now seems like only a placeholder at quick till Bobby Witt Jr. arrives in a few years. This rating might be promoting the Royals a bit quick, as younger pitching can carry a staff if it comes quick (and 2020 prime decide Asa Lacy might not want a lot time within the minors), however they should discover some hitters.


2020 document: 25-35
Fifth in NL West
2021 title odds: 60-1

That was ugly, and the followers are turning on the staff after a few years of trades (Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke and the deadline offers this season) that do not seem to have returned any front-line expertise. Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar, so good in 2019, fell off, with Marte inexplicably deciding he not wished to stroll. Robbie Ray could not throw strikes and was lastly traded. Merrill Kelly harm his shoulder. Madison Bumgarner did not win a recreation. The issue for 2021? The Diamondbacks had the second-oldest lineup within the NL (six of their prime eight regulars had been 29 or older). Bumgarner now seems like a foul $80 million gamble. They’re solely a season faraway from going 85-77, so there’s rebound potential, however the Snakes are a multitude in the mean time.


2020 document: 25-35
Fourth in AL East
2021 title odds: 150-1

Do not get me incorrect, there have been a whole lot of positives in 2020, particularly after shedding 108 video games in 2019 and 115 in 2018. Anthony Santander had a small-sample breakout with the metrics to again it up. Ryan Mountcastle seems prepared to affix the lineup in 2021 and Trey Mancini will hopefully be again at full power after ending his chemo remedy in September. Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer might be arms to look at for the rotation.

They do have monetary flexibility, particularly as they get nearer to the tip of Chris Davis‘ deal, and with Adley Rutschman near the majors and starters D.L. Corridor and Grayson Rodriguez maybe prepared in 2022, the farm is healthier than it has been in not less than 10 years. However the base degree of expertise right here stays fairly low.


2020 document: 26-34
Fourth in NL West
2021 title odds: 100-1

Proper now, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are nonetheless on the roster. Will they be there come spring coaching? The connection between Arenado and the Rockies is strained, making him a commerce candidate this winter. He will not be straightforward to commerce, although: He did not have a great 2020 on the plate, ended the season on the IL, has a full no-trade clause and may decide out of his deal after 2021. If Arenado is traded, you can see the Rockies dealing Story as properly since he is a free agent after 2021. Principally, this staff simply wants a makeover. They ranked eighth within the NL in runs, and for a Rockies staff, that is horrible. (They’d completed beneath fifth only one different time in franchise historical past.)


2020 document: 23-35
Fifth in AL Central
2021 title odds: 200-1

Generally you simply must level out the apparent: Jeimer Candelario was the staff’s finest participant in 2020 — a 26-year-old first baseman who hit .203 the yr earlier than. Look, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal mission pretty much as good starters sooner or later, however their struggles in restricted motion in 2020 recommend that is probably not in 2021. Together with Spencer Turnbull and prospect Matt Manning, there’s a rotation to dream on, however there is no such thing as a offense, and Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, their prime place participant prospects, are extra on a 2022 timetable.


2020 document: 22-38
Fifth in AL West
2021 title odds: 100-1

The Rangers proceed to go backward. They had been dangerous in 2020 in a yr they thought they may contend, they weren’t notably younger and the farm system has struggled to develop pitchers and switch toolsy place gamers into high quality hitters. The offense had a brutal yr — and never simply due to the brand new park. They did not hit on the street both. It is time to admit that Joey Gallo and Rougned Odor are by no means going to be the core of a championship lineup, and if Lance Lynn is traded — he’ll be a free agent after 2021 — the rotation can have an enormous gap to fill.


2020 document: 19-41
Fifth in NL Central
2021 title odds: 300-1

Let’s examine, a small-market staff coming off the worst document within the sport, will not spend any cash in free company, and whose three finest gamers in 2019 had been all horrible in 2020. Step one is to hope Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman rebound, however with many of the group’s prime prospects nonetheless a methods off, the short-term outlook seems bleak. Heck, the long-term outlook is not precisely filled with roses and puppies.

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