The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with no less than one point out of every of the league’s 32 groups. Although effectivity will likely be mentioned a lot, the column will lean closely on utilization knowledge, as quantity is king (by far) in fantasy soccer. Use these tidbits to make the most effective waiver-wire, commerce and lineup choices for the upcoming week and past. Be sure you verify again every week of the season for a brand new model of the Fantasy 32.
Be aware that knowledge from Monday Evening Soccer won’t instantly be mirrored in charts.
All through the under team-by-team rundowns, I will be referencing “OFP” and “OTD.” OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy factors. Think about a league by which gamers are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs each cross/carry/goal and converts the information into one quantity that signifies a participant’s alternative to attain fantasy factors, or his “anticipated” fantasy level whole. For instance, if a participant has an OFP of 14.5, it signifies that a league-average participant who noticed the identical workload in the identical location on the sector would have scored 14.5 fantasy factors. FORP is the distinction between a participant’s precise fantasy level whole and his OFP. OTD works the identical approach, besides as an alternative of fantasy factors, it is touchdowns. Quantity is king in fantasy soccer, so this isn’t data you need to overlook.
That stated, right here is the post-Week 5 OFP Leaderboard:
*Full OTD and OFP positional leaderboards will likely be posted on ESPN+ this week.
Subsequent, listed here are the gamers who exceeded their OFP by the most important margin this previous week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy manufacturing shifting ahead, assuming they see the same workload:
And these gamers fell wanting their OFP by the most important margin final week, and thus you should not be too fast to overreact to their efficiency when making lineup, commerce or waiver choices:
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray threw for 380 yards and one landing whereas including 31 yards and a rating along with his legs towards the Jets in Week 5. Murray entered the sport with a poor 6.4 YPA, which had been exacerbated by throwing for under 133 yards on 31 makes an attempt in Week 4. Murray, who’s now averaging a strong 7.2 YPA, sits fourth amongst quarterbacks in fantasy factors, which has been fueled by 296 yards and 5 touchdowns on the bottom (each are most amongst quarterbacks). Murray’s schedule is more durable within the second half, however so long as he retains throwing (ninth in cross makes an attempt) and working as usually as he has, the second-year quarterback will stay a robust QB1 play.
Atlanta Falcons: Russell Gage opened the season with a 9-114-0 receiving line in Week 1 and 46 extra yards and a rating in Week 2. He then missed most of Week 3 with an damage, however in his previous two full video games, Atlanta’s slot man has totaled a 4-38-0 receiving line on eight targets (he had 21 targets throughout Weeks 1-2). What’s most shocking concerning the drop is the truth that Julio Jones has been sidelined for all however 15 snaps through the stoop. Even when Jones misses extra time, Gage will likely be a shaky flex choice. He is a bench choice in deeper PPR leagues.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson is fantasy’s No. 11 scoring quarterback. Should you took the plunge on the league MVP within the early rounds of your draft, that is clearly not what you have been hoping for. Even in a very good matchup towards the Bengals on Sunday, Jackson was “restricted” to 180 passing yards and two touchdowns by the air, whereas including solely 3 yards on two carries. Jackson entered the week with no less than 6 speeding yards in 36 profession video games by which he had no less than one carry. In actual fact, Jackson’s general speeding manufacturing is down considerably from 2019. He is averaging 8.2 carries for 47.6 yards in 5 2020 video games, in comparison with 12.3 carries for 84.3 yards in 16 video games final season. That is not going to chop it for a participant with a grand whole of seven touchdowns throughout his previous 4 video games. Jackson was on the damage report final week, so it is doable he isn’t 100%, however for now, we’ll must hold expectations in verify because it pertains to his speeding numbers. His ceiling is decrease than typical, however Jackson will nonetheless be a QB1 play towards the Eagles this week.
Buffalo Bills: Response coming after Tuesday’s recreation.
Carolina Panthers: DJ Moore‘s season bought off to a reasonably sluggish begin, however his utilization (he entered Week 5 dealing with 43% of the group’s air yards) advised an enormous play or two was on the horizon. We noticed one on Sunday, as Moore’s quantity really dipped (5 targets), however a 57-yard landing allowed him a 4-93-1 receiving line for the sport. Moore’s targets have fallen from a complete of twenty-two throughout Weeks 1-2 to a complete of 15 throughout Weeks 3-5, although his function because the group’s main vertical menace actually opens the door for giant performs. Count on inconsistent manufacturing from Moore shifting ahead. He’ll be a WR3 choice towards the Bears in Week 6.
Chicago Bears: David Montgomery has posted speeding traces of 10-27-0 and 10-29-1 throughout his previous two video games, which opens up a possibility so that you can attempt to purchase the Bears’ function again in a commerce. The second-year again’s poor speeding effectivity was anticipated towards two of the league’s elite run defenses, but additionally figures to decrease his market worth (that is excellent news for you). Montgomery has been on the sector for over 80% of Chicago’s offensive snaps in each video games since Tarik Cohen went down for the season. He was focused a career-high six instances in Week 4 earlier than leaping to eight in Week 5. The large improve in passing-down work mixed along with his massive share of the carries and maybe the league’s best remaining schedule for a tailback provides Montgomery with a excessive flooring and even perhaps RB1 upside the remainder of the season.
Cincinnati Bengals: One of many knocks on Joe Mixon throughout fantasy draft season was that he wasn’t used sufficient as a pass-catcher. That remained a problem throughout Weeks 1-3, as Mixon totaled a 7-58-0 receiving line on 9 targets. The tide has turned in current weeks, nevertheless, as Mixon posted a 6-30-1 line in Week 4 and a 6-35-0 line this previous Sunday. Mixon had gone 22 consecutive video games with out reaching six targets, however now has completed so in back-to-back video games, together with a career-high eight in Week 5. Mixon has now dealt with 30-plus touches in back-to-back video games and the heavy utilization retains him locked into the weekly RB1 combine although he has discovered the top zone solely 3 times (multi function recreation).
Cleveland Browns: Of their first full recreation with out Nick Chubb, the Browns’ backfield snaps have been as follows: Kareem Hunt – 50 (69%), D’Ernest Johnson – 22, Dontrell Hilliard – 0. Hunt was restricted to 72 yards on 20 carries towards a robust Colts run protection, however added 21 yards and one landing on 4 targets. Hunt has completed all 5 weeks of the 2020 season as a top-24 fantasy again, which incorporates three finishes of thirteenth or higher. An additional goal or two could be good, however Hunt’s enjoying time and heavy utilization recommend he’ll produce RB1 numbers throughout Chubb’s absence. Proceed to lock him into lineups.
Dallas Cowboys: Dalton Schultz was held to six yards on three targets towards the Giants on Sunday. It was a disappointing effort after the third-year tight finish had strung collectively three straight solid-to-good performances, together with a 9-88-1 receiving line in Week 2 and a 4-72-1 displaying in Week 4. The excellent news is that Schultz was on the sector for a season-high 88% of the offensive snaps on Sunday. The unhealthy information (aside from the dud) is that Dak Prescott was misplaced for the season through the recreation, which is clearly going to be detrimental to the group’s offensive success. Fantasy’s No. 6-scoring tight finish previous to Sunday, Schultz is finest considered as a TE2 till we see how usually Andy Dalton goes his route (he did not on any of his 11 throws on Sunday).
Denver Broncos: Jerry Jeudy has put up receiving yardage totals of 56, 62, 55 and 61 throughout his first 4 NFL video games. How’s that for consistency? The 2020 first-round decide’s goal numbers have been robust throughout his first three video games (7.7 per recreation) and, although that quantity fell to a few in Week 4, he did discover the top zone for the primary time throughout that outing. Jeudy’s 19% goal share is sufficient to make him a borderline flex play and his manufacturing figures to enhance as soon as Drew Lock returns to the lineup. Lock is anticipated again this week towards New England.
Detroit Lions: It won’t appear to be it, however D’Andre Swift‘s utilization has been pretty constant to date this season. That, after all, except for a random Week 3 disappearance by which he was restricted to 5 snaps. In any other case, Swift has been within the 19-to-30-snap vary, dealt with three to 5 carries and 4 or 5 targets. The end result has been no less than 11 fantasy factors (however not more than 15) in three of his 4 outings. The second-round rookie hasn’t completed a lot on the bottom (12-42-1 line), however has made noise as a pass-catcher (13-124-1 on 16 targets). Fantasy’s No. 33 again by Week 4 regardless of enjoying solely 30% of Detroit’s snaps, Swift’s enjoying time solely figures to extend because the season progresses. Maintain him in your bench, as flex (if not RB2) standing is on the desk within the close to future.
Green Bay Packers: Imagine it or not, Jamaal Williams entered the Packers’ Week 5 bye sitting twelfth in receptions and ninth in receiving yards amongst working backs. Regardless of the passing-game utilization, Williams sat thirty seventh on the place in fantasy factors. The 25-year-old has solely 29 carries to his title (108 yards) and has but to search out the top zone regardless of a wholesome 2.2 OTD. Although some regression to the imply is on the horizon for the latter, Williams’ common of seven.3 carries and three.5 targets per recreation places him within the vary of the place he is been all through a profession by which he has zero top-30 fantasy campaigns. Aaron Jones (fantasy’s No. 2 scoring again previous to the bye) stays the apparent major man within the Packers’ backfield and 247-pound second-round rookie AJ Dillon is a robust guess for a bigger share of the carries because the temperatures drop this fall and winter. Williams is price solely bench consideration in 12-plus group leagues.
Houston Texans: Recent off a zero-catch effort in Week 4, Brandin Cooks exploded for an 8-161-1 receiving line on 12 targets towards the Jaguars on Sunday. It was simply Cooks’ finest recreation since becoming a member of the Texans, as he entered the sport with 138 yards and 0 scores on 21 targets in 4 earlier video games. Cooks has been on the sector for 82% of Houston’s offensive snaps and his goal share has risen to a wholesome 20%. Particularly with the Texans’ brutal early-season schedule out of the best way, Cooks is again within the weekly WR3/flex dialogue.
Indianapolis Colts: After totaling 162 yards on 22 targets throughout his first 4 video games of 2020, T.Y. Hilton went for six catches and 69 yards on 10 targets towards the Browns on Sunday. The uptick in utilization suggests higher days might be forward, however Hilton has but to attain a landing, clear 69 yards in a recreation or publish a weekly fantasy end higher than twenty sixth this season (fiftieth was his finest previous to Sunday). Hilton’s utilization (21% goal share, 34% air yard share) suggests he stays worthy of a bench spot, however he isn’t a very interesting flex in 10-team leagues in the intervening time.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Laviska Shenault Jr. led the Jaguars in targets (eight), receptions (seven) and receiving yards (79) whereas enjoying 80% of the offensive snaps towards Houston on Sunday. Apart from receiving yardage, these have been all career-high marks for the second-round rookie. Shenault has quietly emerged because the No. 26 scoring fantasy receiver regardless of scoring just one landing (in Week 1). The upside hasn’t been there (no top-20 fantasy weeks), however the flooring has been strong (10-plus fantasy factors in 4 of 5 outings). Shenault’s function solely figures to develop because the season progresses. He is on the flex radar towards Detroit in Week 6.
Kansas City Chiefs: Mecole Hardman was on the sector for a season-high 71% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps on Sunday. It is probably the most enjoying time Hardman has loved since he performed three-quarters of the snaps in Week 11 final season and the fourth-highest fee of his younger profession. Hardman benefited from Sammy Watkins leaving the sport with an damage after 25 snaps (38%) and did not flip the uptick in utilization into a lot manufacturing (50 yards on three targets). Hardman entered the sport having scored in back-to-back video games, however he has did not clear 50 scrimmage yards in 4 of 5 video games. He is all the time a menace for an enormous play, however Hardman must be thought-about solely a WR3/flex choice if Watkins misses time.
Las Vegas Raiders: The excellent news is that Henry Ruggs III made his presence felt with receptions of 72 and 46 yards towards the Chiefs on Sunday. The unhealthy information is that Ruggs was focused just one extra time within the upset victory. Ruggs missed Weeks 3 and 4 with an damage and wasn’t overly productive in his first two NFL video games, totaling a 4-59-0 receiving line on eight targets. Ruggs performed 63% of the snaps throughout these two video games, which aligned along with his 64% fee on Sunday. Ruggs’ workload might improve shifting ahead, however no less than for now, he is not more than a growth/bust flex choice in 12-team leagues.
Los Angeles Chargers: Response coming Tuesday.
Los Angeles Rams: Cam Akers returned from a two-game absence on Sunday, however the rookie again was restricted to 12 snaps within the win over Washington. Akers made some noise with a 46-yard rush, however in any other case totaled 15 yards on eight carries and wasn’t focused. Darrell Henderson Jr. reemerged as Los Angeles’ most efficient again, placing up 38 yards and a rating on 15 carries and 30 yards and one other landing on 4 targets. He performed 44% of the snaps, in comparison with 38% for Malcolm Brown, who totaled 24 yards on 9 touches. This committee assault is not going away, however the Rams’ run-heavy offense has allowed respectable manufacturing from this backfield. Henderson, who has scored 4 touchdowns in his previous three video games, has emerged as the most effective of the trio (he has three top-11 fantasy weeks over the previous 4 weeks) and must be thought-about a borderline RB2 play in the interim. Brown is not a should maintain and Akers’ expertise and pedigree make him price a bench spot.
Miami Dolphins: Lastly! That is what of us who took a late flier on Preston Williams have been mumbling to themselves on Sunday when the second-year receiver went for 106 yards and a landing on 5 targets towards the 49ers. Williams entered the sport with solely 89 yards and one rating on 17 targets throughout his first 4 outings of the season. Regardless of the massive recreation, we must always stay skeptical of Williams after he was restricted to 5 targets within the win. It is doable Williams will emerge right into a dependable flex, however he stays finest left on benches till we see extra constant utilization and manufacturing.
Minnesota Vikings: Dalvin Cook left Sunday evening’s recreation with an damage after enjoying 36 snaps. Cook dinner confirmed properly towards Seattle, with 65 yards and a rating on 17 carries, in addition to 24 yards on 5 targets. Alexander Mattison picked up the place Cook dinner left off, producing 112 yards on a career-high 20 carries and 24 yards on three targets. Mattison was on the sector for 40 snaps, in comparison with solely 4 for Mike Boone and one for Ameer Abdullah. Mattison is among the most respected insurance coverage choices in fantasy, so if Cook dinner misses time, the second-year again would instantly be a part of the weekly RB1 dialogue and would clearly be a lineup lock.
New England Patriots: N’Keal Harry discovered the top zone once we final noticed him in Week 4, however constant fantasy worth has eluded the second-year receiver to this point. The 2019 first-round decide gave the impression to be on the verge of a breakout after an 8-72-0 receiving line on 12 targets towards Seattle in Week 2, however he in any other case has been restricted to traces of 5-39-0, 2-34-0 and 3-21-1. Harry’s 22% goal share is robust, nevertheless it won’t be excessive sufficient in a particularly run-heavy scheme led by Cam Newton. Harry must be in your radar for a flex or DFS begin when the matchup suggests New England will likely be shut or behind on the scoreboard and must cross greater than typical.
New Orleans Saints: Response coming Tuesday.
New York Giants: It hasn’t taken lengthy for Devonta Freeman to take management of the Giants’ backfield. The previous Falcons star has performed 53% of the offensive snaps in back-to-back video games, however set a season excessive with 17 carries in Week 5. He turned that utilization into 60 yards and one landing whereas additionally including 27 yards on three targets. Freeman has now reached 15 touches in back-to-back video games and that figures to be the norm shifting ahead. Freeman will likely be within the RB2 dialogue most weeks and that is the case this weekend towards a Washington protection that has been roughed up by the Browns’ and Rams’ backs in current outings.
New York Jets: Le’Veon Bell returned from injured reserve on Sunday and performed 70% of the offensive snaps. Bell ran the ball properly (13-60-0), however was held to 7 yards on his solely goal. Frank Gore carried the ball on 9 of his 19 snaps (30%) and rookie La’Mical Perine did not play. It is onerous to get enthusiastic about anybody within the New York offense, however Bell’s mixture of ability and alternative will hold him locked into the weekly RB2 dialogue. After all, he’ll want extra involvement within the passing recreation. Bell was focused on 78 (21%) of his 366 routes in 2019, however sits at three targets (7%) on 42 routes in 2020.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have invested lots of property on the extensive receiver place in recent times, nevertheless it’s a participant whom they claimed off waivers in August who has emerged as their most suitable choice on the place. Travis Fulgham, a 2019 sixth-round decide by Detroit, posted a 10-152-1 receiving line on 13 targets towards a very good Steelers protection on Sunday. Fulgham has now scored in each of his video games with Philadelphia. The Eagles might have DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery again within the subsequent week or two, nevertheless it’s onerous to think about Fulgham not remaining certainly one of Carson Wentz‘s prime targets. Add him on waivers and take into account him on your flex in Week 6.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Chase Claypool exploded onto the fantasy scene on Sunday with seven catches for 110 yards and three touchdowns on 11 targets, in addition to 6 yards and a further rating on three carries. Claypool entered the sport with a 6-151-1 receiving line on 9 targets throughout his first three NFL video games. The second-round rookie was on the sector for 70% of the offensive snaps, a quantity that probably would’ve been a lot decrease if not for an early-game damage to Diontae Johnson that restricted the Steelers’ goal chief to 6 snaps. After all, the cat appears to be out of the bag on Claypool and, although his landing fee is definite to regress (5 TDs, 1.1 OTD), it is onerous to think about him not enjoying a close to full-time function together with Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster shifting ahead. Clearly a must-add if he is nonetheless on the market on waivers, Claypool must be considered as a flex choice with upside for extra. He’ll be within the WR2 dialogue if Johnson misses time.
San Francisco 49ers: Raheem Mostert returned from damage on Sunday and instantly stepped again in because the 49ers’ lead again. Mostert was on the sector for 53% of the offensive snaps, carrying the ball 11 instances for 90 yards and including 29 yards on three targets. Jerick McKinnon took a again seat with one carry and 4 targets on 24% of the snaps. Jeff Wilson Jr. performed 20% of the snaps and racked up 4 carries and one goal within the blowout loss. Mostert has delivered three top-20 fantasy weeks in as many tries and his utilization and continuous elite effectivity hold him locked into the weekly RB2 combine. McKinnon belongs on benches.
Seattle Seahawks: A number of weeks again on this very column, I famous that whereas DK Metcalf was undoubtedly a weekly WR1 choice, his effectivity was going to regress to the imply and he’d want a lift in quantity to achieve elite manufacturing. Maybe that quantity is now on the desk, as Metcalf set new career-high marks in each targets (13) and air yards (255) towards Minnesota on Sunday evening. Metcalf has now scored 5 touchdowns on the season, has 92-plus yards in all 5 video games and sits fourth amongst extensive receivers in fantasy factors. Metcalf’s 25% goal share and 50% air yard share for the season are greater than sufficient to permit WR1 manufacturing in a Seattle offense that’s each pass-heaviest within the league and has scored four-plus touchdowns in each recreation.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tyler Johnson exploded onto the fantasy scene with 4 catches for a team-high 61 yards on six targets towards the Bears on Thursday evening. The fifth-round rookie performed 81% of the offensive snaps, trailing solely Mike Evans among the many group’s extensive receivers. Regardless of the robust displaying, Johnson is unlikely to be worthy of a bench spot (not to mention flex consideration) shifting ahead. Each Chris Godwin and Justin Watson have been out on Thursday and Scotty Miller (0 targets on 42 snaps) was seemingly a decoy at lower than 100% well being. That stated, Johnson is a really intriguing dynasty maintain, as his collegiate résumé features a mixture of heavy quantity and high-end effectivity. Be aware that, amongst this yr’s rookie class, Johnson joined CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins and Jerry Jeudy (these three have been top-35 picks in April’s draft) as the highest 4 extensive receivers in yards per route run final season.
Tennessee Titans: Response coming after Tuesday’s recreation.
Washington Football Team: J.D. McKissic caught six of eight targets for 40 yards towards the Rams on Sunday. McKissic has now managed no less than six catches, eight targets and 40 yards in back-to-back video games and sits fourth amongst working backs in targets for the season. McKissic hasn’t been a lot of an element as a rusher, nevertheless (three carries throughout his previous two video games), and has but to attain a landing (1.1 OTD), which has left him with out a single top-30 fantasy week. McKissic is main Washington’s backfield in snaps, however he is by far second fiddle to Antonio Gibson for touches. Take into account McKissic for a bench spot solely in deep PPR leagues.